Sunday, January 4, 2009

MARKETS 01/04/09

Again a brief note. The snp is in an upthrust position and while it breached its resistance with an increased range from high to low, the volume on the cash Dow decreased. This suggests no significant demand. A very disproportionate amount of the volume took place at the ask implying short covering. There was little supply pressed on the market all day until 2:45 at which time we had three closes about equal on high volume, supply overcoming demand, followed by the largest bar of the day with the heaviest volume. In this bar more supply was pressed on the market and the market was able to move down smartly. To sum up, having broken through our pivotal point at 919.25, we saw no increase in demand, but instead an increase in selling. An open below 919.25 would be very bearish. On the other hand we might expect a retracement to 919 or theabouts and then an attempt to rally. That attempt will tell much. The financials remain weaker than the market as a whole.

The dx had a small upthrust during a back up to the ice. This is a classic Wyckoff place to sell short as the risk can be very small.

Finally, the gdx had a small upthrust as well. While putting us on guard it is not serious yet. With almost all recent closes at the top of the daily range, this looks like absorption rather than distribution so far. There has been no ease of movement to the downside in gdx so far.