The 5 minute point and figure shows the complication of today. Yesterday I pointed out how the flattening of the lines pointed to supply, today the flattening points to supportive buying. But buying that is not willing to follow prices higher. As such we can see lower prices but I expect that buying to persist even if at lower prices.
The 60 minute pnf chart I believe, as I mentioned yesterday is on the hinge but a rise is most likely. We have not even broken a trendline, if I could draw them. Reacting 2 "0's" is not that unusual and does not point to exceptionally heavy sustained selling. As such I do not see any reason on this chart to assume the trend has changed.
The volume on the daily Dow fell almost in half as it remains in its 4 day trading range closing on its low. The uptrend line is still intact. Today either the supply dried up(most likely) or the demand. If the former we can look forward to some kind of spring. If the latter we will need a wide range heavy volume break in prices.
Prices fell after the opening with heavy volume, wide ranges and low end closes until the volume, supply diminished. Volume and range diminished on the rally beginning at 10:50 and it took 8 bars to not quite regain the loss in the days first four bars. To add insult to injury the rally is heavily sold form 10:35 on . The average spikes on markedly lower volume to 92.11 showing demand is exhausted and prices fall off sharply. Selling does not pursue prices lower and a weak rally characterized by sporadic volume begins at 1:00. By 91.40 the very weak volume warns that we are out of demand. Prices fall off sharply and are then supported above the 91.55 red line. It is this support which was so prominent in the flattening of the pnf chart. We again upthrust and fall slightly below our red support line, telling us the selling pressure is greater than the support. From this point to the end of the day rallies are heavily sold. Note the volume spikes on rallies and how they quickly give way.I am again adding commodity charts just because there is so much deflationary talk in the media.
