Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Markets 7/28/09

I want to make four brief, I hope, points about this chart. First, notice the change in behavior. Remember how I commented on the strength of this move and how reactions were often contained within the preceding up bar. Reactions are now swift and furious, moving with wide bars and often heavy volume. We saw the opposite behavior at the bottom in March which was preceded by a few days in which there were swift and furious intra day rallies. Second, notice how long it takes to recover from these declines, all day. There is no consistent buying on these rallies. The average floats up primarily due to lack of selling. Perhaps this variation between fast wide declines and meandering advances is characteristic of one type of distribution. Time will tell. Third the bar which rallied to 98.25 had higher volume than any of the bars in the last hour. This is very unusual just as the 10:00 bar on 7/27 being the highest volume bar of the day. Both are heavy selling checking an advance. In fact supply consistently comes in to overwhelm demand on these advances. Supply will not yet follow and push prices out of their trading range of the past few days. Finally, the last bar on the 28th was an upthrust but by .01 points and as such we ended the day in a potential small downtrend.
BUBBLE, BUBBLE TOIL AND TROUBLE. The bubble machine at its finest, ready to pop???