Monday, October 5, 2009

MARKETS 10/05/2009

Please compare the stair step movement on the way down to the two step forward 1 1/2 step back movement in today's advance above the red line. The line of least resistance is down as every upward step meets stiff resistance. That is really all one needs to know about today's action.
In the Dow and the SPY there is an axis line. In the Dow it is at 9650. Given the halting move described above, it is unlikely we can make it through this axis line unless the market changes it s behavior.
The market has rallied back underneath the zone of distribution at 104-105.
The trendline held and the market has rallied back a bit less than Mr. Wyckoff's 50% +or -. This is a nice place for a turn plus or minus.
I will review daily charts in another post. The market gapped up and then sold off and met support in the next bar. A sharp rally ensued at 9:45 on good volume and the volume trailed off until 10:00 with an outside key reversal on very high volume. 10 and 10:05 retraced nearly the entire gain and found support. A moderate volume rally ensued until 11:00 and at 11:05 another key reversal bar. Again around 1 PM another slight new high was sold what the market would bear, not much. Around 2:30 began a run up that looked possibly climactic and it too ended with a reversal bar at 2:55 and at 3:10 was the attempted rally that failed. The decline into the close was both heavily sold and heavily supported.