Sunday, December 13, 2009

Markets 12/13/09 spy and spx

The market has flattened out into a 20 point range on the 10X1 point and figure. These flattened areas were considered by Mr. Wyckoff to be possible turning points. 10 across the 1100 line gives a count of 100 points conservatively, and that can be extended another 9 to the left to the October peak. Despite all the bullish hype, this market has not moved since October.
We closed the week at the midpoint of the range.
The broader the index, the less the progress over the past few months. This tells us the move is concentrated in a few issues, and probably those that can most easily be manipulated with the futures. The trading range on the $NYA extends back to the second week in September. Please notice that this average made a slightly lower low on Wednesday. The range on the rally bars since have contracted and volume has not expanded while we have swung to the center of the 7000-7285 range. The market is weakly pushing up against the 2 heavy distribution days a week ago Thursday and Friday. Quite possibly it is moving to a hinge.
A move down to 111.0 places this market on the hinge. From there we can expect a relatively large move either way,
Although the trade is getting crowded, watch the bonds. A more detailed post will follow later this week, time permitting.