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| This chart adequately pictures the move from March 09 to the present. Please note that the last move up is the largest up wave on the chart and now has the second largest volume on the chart. It very well might be the largest soon and is far larger than the average volume bar. Coming 18 months into the move, I believe it is climactic and will, if it has not already, exhaust demand. That the Fed can conjure demand out of thin air, should not lead us to ignore the implication of this chart. The exhaustion of demand, especially in an upthrust position could be a terminal event for this move beginning March 09. |
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| On this chart I will clearly show the evaporation of demand and the rise of selling pressure. Please note the buying climax at almost 75 million shares, which is double the black bars that preceded in this up ward move beginning 11/3. The next up wave on 11/5 has half the volume and a smaller range. Could demand be starting to diminish? The red bar following has the most volume--selling pressure of any red bar since the move began 2 days before. It also takes out the low of the preceding column of 3 o's. Demand is faltering but after a move of this size a reaction is to be expected. The selling diminishes at 122 and demand comes in with the rally to 122.56. For the rest of the day the rally continues but the black bars never depict as much demand as on this first rally. The rally to 122.64 has no demand at all and following down wave has more volume than the preceding up wave. Selling pressure is exceeding buying. The next rally to the high at 122.88 has lackluster demand. The following down move breaks through the preceding 4 o's at 122.4 and 122.48, making a lower low. Most importantly, the volume is the highest red bar since up move began on 11/3. This confirms that the trend has probably turned. As of yet we have no way of estimating how long and how far this move will go. With the evidence at hand, Mr Wyckoff would say that all investment positions should be liquidated. I would add that the exhaustion of demand in an upthrust position is especially ominous for a major decline and could be terminal for this 20 month old rally. |
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| A larger view for your perusal. |
