Error
Possible upthrust and possible change in trend.
error
On the 2nd highest volume in 3-4 weeks we made a new high with a narrow range and a high end close. This is quite bullish. Unfortunately we are also at the upper trend line.
The hourly chart clearly shows with the reversal bar at 104.76 how strong the support is under the market. The next three bars all have closes at the top and prices do not move 0.5 points. Just as the buying overcame the selling in the morrning, so the selling overcame the buying at the final hour. For all the pushing and hauling prices moved less than 1/2 point for the day.
One method I am told of turning or positioning for a turn in the market is to sell on a scale up until the buying is exhausted and then sell much more when the market has turned. The outside key reversal at C marks both where demand was exhausted and the selling beginning in earnest. A,B,C are also where large numbers of shares were sold into the advance. Obviously this is not a strategy that is pursued by small traders, but by major funds with sophisticated traders and huge quantities of capital. By D the selling was a torrent, possibly even climactic.You can imagine my surprise when I saw the up down pumping action at D and E and knew that it meant demand was overcoming supply. The rally through the green lines created a possible uptrend and the test is marked on the chart. Note the evaporation of volume and shrinkage of range on the test. Instead of a rout we now have the makings of a good up move and that expectation is disproved as well. By 3:30 major selling begins, breaking the green line for a lower low and we end in an OKR bar.
