Thursday, September 24, 2009

Markets 9/24/09

Please read this comment last. Having observed the selling greater than the buying for the better part of the previous week, I expected an upthrust after the Fed meeting and for it to be the terminal event preceding a decline. The market had to give its confirmation and to confirm that the upthrust exhausted the little demand left. The second buying climax is frequently an easier and safer sell than the first. The second buying climax is a reversal bar. Find the two bars that tell you demand is exhausted, Note the confirming ease of movement at 2:55 which also makes a lower low. For the next few hours the liquidation carried on with high volume and a large number of low end closes. From 10:40 until the close, the market traded in a narrow range barely able to rally 10 ponts or 25% of its downward move. The inability to rally shows no demand so far.
Please notice the upthrust yesterday and the rapid decline following. An upthrust can be seen as one of those resurrection bars but it is terminal for the upmove.
The high volume down bars show experienced large traders, realizing the market has turned filling the dip buyers with shares. They are in a rush and not saying "after you." If the marker does not retrace more of its decline, that would be a tremendous sign of weakness.