Sunday, February 14, 2010

2/14/10 The hinge

The SPY ended the week on the hinge. It is at an apex and a move 2 boxes either way could constitute a breakout. The count of 10 across the 107.31 line gives a move down to 100 or so and the count of 3 on the 105.85 line has been accomplished. Should the market go up, we have a possible 8 on the 106.58. The count overall can be extended across the 110.23 line and possibly even further the October high which would make for a vicious bear market.
Personally given the history of possibly up to 4 months of distribution, I believe we are going to breakdown.(puns intended?)
The ambitious counts across the 1.6137 and the 165.66 line both came in within 1 box. At 155.76 we will again be on the hinge, but the count is only for another 1.5 cents or so over the short term. For some reason the long term chart did not copy over but it has not changed so the long term view on the pound has not altered.
On a fundamental note right now the market is obsessed with the "flaw" in the Euro, that individual governments cannot print money to pay their debts, which if the debt is denominated in there own currency is a stealth default but a temporary fix. Soon the flaw that will preoccupy the market is that Britain can and will print money to pay their debts.
We are looking for a return to the bottom of the chart. Not much buying interest evident yet.
How many hinges can you find on this chart? What is the count if we rally from here? This for a move down is also called a springboard.