This week I will follow up on last week with basically the same charts. While the euro can do whatever it will like, there is no sign of a bottom. The count remains the same with a target of about 124. I doubt it will get there in a straight line however.
Since the hinge at 162 the pound has fallen sharply and it close to its most conservative target of 155.
The
vix also rose sharply as expected. A conservative target is 31 with 8 across the 23 line.
The Long Bond seems to be
everyone's favorite short sale, with the never ending deficits and all that. In general notice that even with the sell off in stocks and the fight to the dollar this last week, the bonds did not move. To my mind, this not moving would be the same as a stock that did not participate in the sell off. It tells me that something is up. Here it is a sign of weakness or lack of buying interest. So we are going to watch closely for a change in trend. Until then our nearest upside target is 4 across the 118 giving 122.
This week I added the yield chart for the Long Bond. 8 across 47.25 gives 45.25 which has been accomplished for the most conservative count. The next is at 47 with 15 boxes giving 43.75 as a next possible target. We now have good support along the 45 line, so time will tell.
While the intermediate trend is down, there is the possibility of a counter trend rally. The most conservative count of 7 boxes across 1102 was accomplished at 1051 and we now have a count of 3 across 1058 calling for a possible rally to 1080. I am split on the
possibility and will wait for the market to tip its hand a bit more.
This week I will follow up on last week with basically the same charts. While the euro can do whatever it will like, there is no sign of a bottom. The count remains the same with a target of about 124. I doubt it will get there in a straight line however.
Since the hinge at 162 the pound has fallen sharply and it close to its most conservative target of 155.
The vix also rose sharply as expected. A conservative target is 31 with 8 across the 23 line.
The Long Bond seems to be everyone's favorite short sale, with the never ending deficits and all that. In general notice that even with the sell off in stocks and the fight to the dollar this last week, the bonds did not move. To my mind, this not moving would be the same as a stock that did not participate in the sell off. It tells me that something is up. Here it is a sign of weakness or lack of buying interest. So we are going to watch closely for a change in trend. Until then our nearest upside target is 4 across the 118 giving 122.
This week I added the yield chart for the Long Bond. 8 across 47.25 gives 45.25 which has been accomplished for the most conservative count. The next is at 47 with 15 boxes giving 43.75 as a next possible target. We now have good support along the 45 line, so time will tell.
While the intermediate trend is down, there is the possibility of a counter trend rally. The most conservative count of 7 boxes across 1102 was accomplished at 1051 and we now have a count of 3 across 1058 calling for a possible rally to 1080. I am split on the possibility and will wait for the market to tip its hand a bit more.
