As I do no have much time tonight because of household duties, I will comment briefly on two charts. The weekly spx just finished its smallest two week range in around two years. Despite making new highs this week the range remained narrow and the volume shrunk further. No matter how you cut it demand is shrinking at the top of a large rally. While demand can always kick in if it feels like it, I cannot overestimate the prognostic importance of no demand in predicting large moves.
The Nasdaq has been the upside leader. It has far surpassed its January high and in fact never made a new low in March. Eyeballing the chart I do not believe it made a lower low before this week except for what turned into a reaction in May. The low Friday was lower than the low Wednesday, marking a change in behavior but more importantly a lower low. Should we fail to rally from here or make a lower high, then we should expect a sharp downward move and the beginning of a downward trend.