We are now playing for a major move in the indexes and as such will de-emphasize the intraday 5 minute chart. After the upthrust to 96.11 the index moved down easily, bottoming last Wednesday. Since then we have seen an inability to rally which confirms our theme of last week. No Demand. We still have not seen a high volume wide range down bar, heavy supply, but I will take what we have so far. The slight rally Thursday and Friday can be called either a backup to the ice or a LPSY, last point of supply. From my point of view the important point is the lower high, meaning the daily trend is now probably down. This will be confirmed by breaking Wednesday's low.The hourly chart and the point and figures I posted because they so nicely confirm the daily chart.
Also I posted a pnf chart of J.P.Morgan Chase. As the financial crisis has been declared over I thought readers might like to see an hourly pnf chart of one of the risk averse heroes--- JPM, also the subject of a recent paean by Gillian Tett. As you can see this chart is already in a confirmed downtrend with lower lows and lower highs. Moreover distribution stretches all the way back potentially to 4/3, if prices should fall much further. The news and the chart are at variance, you decide which to believe.
