Sunday, June 7, 2009

Friday was a reversal day in an upthrust position, with low volume and a close in the lower half. Demand is exhausted in the cash spx. The next step for a downtrend to be confirmed is for the index to move below Wednesday's low-- a lower low.
Friday's pnf of the spy clearly shows three large selling waves which are supply overpowering demand. In addition at this level having gone below the last low before the opening run-up we are in a downtrend.
Unlike the spx the spy had relatively large volume Friday. Given the close this is not necessarily more bullish than low volume. The battle is being fought in the derivatives because large players are not buying stock for the long term.
Please note that the 2 mid day bars taken together have the least volume of any 2 similar bars for at least a month. This is a failure of demand on a test of the morning upthrust.
Please note the large supply was on the morning sell-offs and the total absence of demand on the rallies at 1:00 and 1:50.
I HOPE YOU CAN SEE WHY I BELIEVE THAT ONE OF THE GREAT BEAR MARKET RALLIES IN HISTORY MIGHT HAVE ENDED FRIDAY.