Tuesday, August 11, 2009

markets 8/11/09

The dollar is moving as expected. It has not reacted much after its spring, yet.
Easily taking out the high last Thursday and making a higher high, bonds now have a potential up trend.
Notice how yesterday and today so many of the rallies were contained within the range of one preceding down bar. This shows no rally power and is very odd before Santa, I mean the FOMC meets. Today we ended in a potential down trend.
Finally the SPX made a slightly lower low today taking out last Thursday's low by a fraction. This is a potential change in trend.
I have one final note. The vast majority of blogs are bullish. Those that are not are looking for a 50 point reaction to 950. I have spent weeks showing how there is really only one buyer. The demand over 1000 is almost non existent. Most of the day that buyer is not even able to participate. In fact the moves in so many markets are so linked and concordant that sometimes I think it is one computer some where in the world that is doing all the buying. If that buyer is now exhausted, being unable to hold spx above a recent low, I believe it is as likely we see an avalanche of selling as a 5% reaction. I believe we could see 837 by 9/23/09!!!