Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Tonight we will vary a bit from our usual Wyckoff analysis. I invite you to observe what happened to prices when the spy crossed 70, 80, and 90 for the first time in this rally. Notice the large bars, the gaps etc; Well 1000 is the psychologically biggest number of them all. Notice our range and volume. So far no one has rushed in. This puts us at a critical point. There has been no profit taking on this run up. Perhaps the plan was to dump on the mass of public buying that would appear on crossing to 4 digits. That buying had better appear soon or once again the smartest brains on Wall Street might again find themselves holding trillions in unsaleable paper.
To emphasize the above after some supply which ended early in the day, at 10:30 began a low volume rally which ended at a new high at 1:00. No real buying was attracted. The sell-off which ended one hour later was much more intense and selling was attracted. Support came in and the rally that followed to 100.6 had erratic volume that petered out. Volume shows a tendency to increase on the declines until the final ramp job in the last 25 minutes. This was the only real buying all day, just like yesterday. Who are these buyers going to sell to? If no one volunteers to buy at a P/E of 760 they will all rush for the exit at once. Watch today's low prices carefully.