The only thing bearish on this char is the decreasing volume that accompanied the past three days of rally. Price action in this case trumps volume and we would expect further rally. The only caveat to this would be if last Thursday turned out to be climactic. Large supply entering
the market would make that clear.
The point and figure shows that despite the apparent strength above we are battling supply with shortening of the thrust. That being said we ended the day in an uptrend after a small spring.
There is no buying during the middle of the day. Whoever is buying has no one to sell to yet.
In the table below are listed the P/E of the
sp500 index. The calculation is by S&P itself. The second column from the right is the P/E calculated from reported earnings on a
GAAP basis. That P/E is either 723 or 768. The reported earnings are $7.27. When we consider that banks no longer have to mark to market, if that number were calculated as it was just a few months ago, it would be much lower, maybe even negative and the P/E would be even more outrageous.
The Projection for next quarter is a negative number.
| 09/30/2009 | | $15.00 | $7.45 | $11.68 | | 24.88 | -966.62 | 29.81 |
| 06/30/2009 (53%) | 919.32 | $14.22 | $7.27 | $11.05 | | 24.29 | 768.73 | 26.36 |
| | | | | | 22.87 | 723.87 | 24.83 |
| ACTUALS | | | | | | | | |
| 03/31/2009 | 797.87 | $10.11 | $7.52 | | | 18.56 | 116.31 | |
| 12/31/2008 | 903.25 | -$0.09 | -$23.25 | | | 18.24 | 60.70 | |
| 09/30/2008 | 1166.36 | $15.96 | $9.73 | | | 17.99 | 25.38 | |
| 06/30/2008 | 1280.00 | $17.02 | $12.86 | | | 18.36 | 24.92 | |
| 03/31/2008 | 1322.70 | $16.62 | $15.54 | | | 17.23 | 21.90 | |
| 12/31/2007 | 1468.36 | $15.22 | $7.82 | | | 17.79 | 22.19 | |
| 09/30/2007 | 1526.75 | $20.87 | $15.15 | | | 17.09 | 19.42 | |
| 06/30/2007 | 1503.35 | $24.06 | $21.88 | | | 16.44 | 17.70 | |
| 03/31/2007 | 1420.86 | $22.39 | $21.33 | | | 15.90 | 17.09 | |
| 12/31/2006 | 1418.30 | $21.99 | $20.24 | | | 16.17 | 17.40 | |
| 09/30/2006 | 1335.85 | $23.03 | $21.47 | | | 15.55 | 17.00 | |
| 06/30/2006 | 1270.20 | $21.95 | $20.11 | | | 15.54 | 17.05 | |
| 03/31/2006 | 1294.83 | $20.75 | $19.69 | | | 16.35 | 17.82 | |
| 12/31/2005 | 1248.29 | $20.19 | $17.30 | | | 16.33 | 17.85 | |
| 09/30/2005 | 1228.81 | $18.84 | $17.39 | | | 16.56 | 18.46 | |
| 06/30/2005 | 1191.33 | $19.42 | $18.29 | | | 16.49 | 18.80 | |
| 03/31/2005 | 1180.59 | $18.00 | $16.95 | | | 16.91 | 19.57 | |
| 12/31/04 | 1211.92 | $17.95 | $13.94 | | | 17.91 | 20.70 | |
| 09/30/2004 | 1114.58 | $16.88 | $14.18 | | | 17.25 | 19.29 | |
| 06/30/2004 | 1140.84 | $16.98 | $15.25 | | | 18.36 | 20.32 | |
| 03/31/2004 | 1126.21 | $15.87 | $15.18 | | | 19.39 | 21.66 | |
| 12/31/03 | 1111.92 | $14.88 | $13.16 | | | 20.33 | 22.81 | |
| 09/30/2003 | 995.97 | $14.41 | $12.56 | | | 19.25 | 25.82 | |
| 06/30/2003 | 974.50 | $12.92 | $11.10 | | | 19.91 | 28.21 | |
| 03/31/2003 | 848.18 | $12.48 | $11.92 | | | 17.79 | 27.97 | |
| 12/31/2002 | 879.82 | $11.94 | $3.00 | | | 19.11 | 31.89 | |
| 09/30/2002 | 815.28 | $11.61 | $8.53 | | | 18.52 | 27.14 | |
| 06/30/2002 | 989.81 | $11.64 | $6.87 | | | 23.80 | 37.02 | |
| 03/31/2002 | 1147.39 | $10.85 | $9.19 | | | 29.44 | 46.45 | |
| 12/31/2001 | 1148.08 | $9.94 | $5.45 | | | 29.55 | 46.50 | |
| 09/30/2001 | 1040.94 | $9.16 | $5.23 | | | 24.77 | 36.77 | |
The only thing bearish on this char is the decreasing volume that accompanied the past three days of rally. Price action in this case trumps volume and we would expect further rally. The only caveat to this would be if last Thursday turned out to be climactic. Large supply entering the market would make that clear. 
The point and figure shows that despite the apparent strength above we are battling supply with shortening of the thrust. That being said we ended the day in an uptrend after a small spring.
There is no buying during the middle of the day. Whoever is buying has no one to sell to yet.
In the table below are listed the P/E of the sp500 index. The calculation is by S&P itself. The second column from the right is the P/E calculated from reported earnings on a GAAP basis. That P/E is either 723 or 768. The reported earnings are $7.27. When we consider that banks no longer have to mark to market, if that number were calculated as it was just a few months ago, it would be much lower, maybe even negative and the P/E would be even more outrageous.
